Friday, September 3, 2010
Thursday, August 26, 2010
Jews and Political Parties: Is the tide shifting?
The recent Pew Research Poll got a lot of publicity because of its findings that the 11% of Americans who believed that Obama is Muslim in 2008, has increased significantly to 18% in 2010. This shift is now probably greater because this survey was done before Obama expressed his opinion on the Ground Zero Mosque.
Because of the “Is Obama Muslim?” question, the press missed another – perhaps even more significant – finding in that study. Recall that when Obama was elected, Jews overwhelmingly voted for him. 78% of Jews the, second largest ethnic group behind only African-Americans, voted for Obama. In 2008, only 20% of Jews identified or leaned Republican.
Back when George H. W. Bush was president, his Secretary of State and advisor, James Baker, famously quipped: “F**k the Jews. They don’t vote for us anyhow.” I suspect, that after the Obama team saw the Jews’ unquestioning support for his candidacy someone in Omaba’s White House must have said: “F**K the Jews. They WILL vote for us anyway.” And, we see the results of Obama’s Muslim outreach (nothing positive) and pressure on Israel (nothing positive). Jews are starting to get it.
A significant change has occurred since 2008. According to this same Pew Research Poll 33% of Jews now identify or lean Republican. Obama has helped increase membership in the Republican Jewish Coalition!
This will affect the Senate race in PA where Democrat Joe Sestak, is being criticized for his pro-Palestinian anti-Israel positions. (His recent endorsement by the former R Senator, Chuck Hagel, who was NO friend of Israel, has further illuminated Sestak’s anti-Israel bias.) Loyal Jewish D’s may stay home in November rather that vote for Sestak. The independent Jews will vote for Toomey. This shift in Jewish party allegiance from D to R will help Pat Toomey win PA’s Senate seat in November.
Because of the “Is Obama Muslim?” question, the press missed another – perhaps even more significant – finding in that study. Recall that when Obama was elected, Jews overwhelmingly voted for him. 78% of Jews the, second largest ethnic group behind only African-Americans, voted for Obama. In 2008, only 20% of Jews identified or leaned Republican.
Back when George H. W. Bush was president, his Secretary of State and advisor, James Baker, famously quipped: “F**k the Jews. They don’t vote for us anyhow.” I suspect, that after the Obama team saw the Jews’ unquestioning support for his candidacy someone in Omaba’s White House must have said: “F**K the Jews. They WILL vote for us anyway.” And, we see the results of Obama’s Muslim outreach (nothing positive) and pressure on Israel (nothing positive). Jews are starting to get it.
A significant change has occurred since 2008. According to this same Pew Research Poll 33% of Jews now identify or lean Republican. Obama has helped increase membership in the Republican Jewish Coalition!
This will affect the Senate race in PA where Democrat Joe Sestak, is being criticized for his pro-Palestinian anti-Israel positions. (His recent endorsement by the former R Senator, Chuck Hagel, who was NO friend of Israel, has further illuminated Sestak’s anti-Israel bias.) Loyal Jewish D’s may stay home in November rather that vote for Sestak. The independent Jews will vote for Toomey. This shift in Jewish party allegiance from D to R will help Pat Toomey win PA’s Senate seat in November.
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Musings inspired by the August 24, 2010 primaries
An excerpt from Commentary’ Magazine’s website about the FL elections of 8-24-10. But the real story is the gigantic gap in turnout. The Democrat race drew about 862,000 voters; the Republicans drew about 1.28 million voters. In other words, about 420,000 more Republicans than Democrats turned out.
What will happen on November 2, 2010?
The interesting fact is how much more motivated Republicans are over Democrats as documented by the high R turn-out in primaries nationwide. What's more, multiple polls have shown significant erosion of independents’ support for Obama.
When Obama was elected, he won by getting over 96% of the black vote, over 78% of the Jewish vote (Jews made up the second-largest demographic block to vote for Obama.) but it was the majority of the independents’ votes that swept him into office. These unaffiliated voters are the votes that each party seeks. This is the group that has the power to change outcomes. And now, an interesting phenomenon of Buyer's Remorse is growing among independents. Obama has turned them off by. Perhaps I'll discuss this in a future musing.
Incumbent D candidates are avoiding public appearances with Obama. Obama is not an asset for an incumbent running for election, or re-election. This is a change from 2008 when Obama's Hope and Change rhetoric was echoed by the Democratic candidates. Although Obama still attends fund-raisers (his recent Hollywood appearances raked in mega-bucks from the Hollywood elite chattering class for the D coffers) not one D candidate in CA campaigned in public with Obama. The fundraisers were held behind closed Brentwood, CA gates.
Biden has been campaigning publically, but it is unclear if his appearances do anything more than excite the already loyal D base. I do not think Biden will inspire independents to contribute time or money to the D incumbents or, most importantly, to show up and vote in November for a D candidate.
That leaves us with the enthusiasm of registered Republicans. If the R's turn-out in November 2010 continues along present trend lines, and if the independents show up to vote (and they do appear to be inclined to switch their vote to the R candidates) then I predict we will see a significant number of D's lose in November. Will that flip the House and/or Senate away from D control? I won't predict yet. But, I will predict that Obama will be a one term president.
What will happen on November 2, 2010?
The interesting fact is how much more motivated Republicans are over Democrats as documented by the high R turn-out in primaries nationwide. What's more, multiple polls have shown significant erosion of independents’ support for Obama.
When Obama was elected, he won by getting over 96% of the black vote, over 78% of the Jewish vote (Jews made up the second-largest demographic block to vote for Obama.) but it was the majority of the independents’ votes that swept him into office. These unaffiliated voters are the votes that each party seeks. This is the group that has the power to change outcomes. And now, an interesting phenomenon of Buyer's Remorse is growing among independents. Obama has turned them off by. Perhaps I'll discuss this in a future musing.
Incumbent D candidates are avoiding public appearances with Obama. Obama is not an asset for an incumbent running for election, or re-election. This is a change from 2008 when Obama's Hope and Change rhetoric was echoed by the Democratic candidates. Although Obama still attends fund-raisers (his recent Hollywood appearances raked in mega-bucks from the Hollywood elite chattering class for the D coffers) not one D candidate in CA campaigned in public with Obama. The fundraisers were held behind closed Brentwood, CA gates.
Biden has been campaigning publically, but it is unclear if his appearances do anything more than excite the already loyal D base. I do not think Biden will inspire independents to contribute time or money to the D incumbents or, most importantly, to show up and vote in November for a D candidate.
That leaves us with the enthusiasm of registered Republicans. If the R's turn-out in November 2010 continues along present trend lines, and if the independents show up to vote (and they do appear to be inclined to switch their vote to the R candidates) then I predict we will see a significant number of D's lose in November. Will that flip the House and/or Senate away from D control? I won't predict yet. But, I will predict that Obama will be a one term president.
Monday, August 23, 2010
My first blog entry should tell you a bit about me, my background, and what I will blog about.
I used to be a liberal. Then, my paradigm shifted.
Like most baby-boomer US born Jews, my parents (and most American Jews) assumed that FDR was president and Eleanor Roosevelt was the first lady – and this was until the ‘80s! Republicans were “bad” and Democrats were “good.” (Never mind that the Democrats opposed the Civil Rights Bill and stood for segregation in the South and that it was a Republican President – Eisenhower – who Federalized the National Guard to escort black students into Little Rock Central High school.)
Attending an Ivy League school for my undergraduate degree in the ‘60s immersed me in the liberal pro-peace, anti-Vietnam, Communism may not be that bad, tax the rich, give to the poor, big government is good philosophy. And, that’s how I was and that’s how I stayed until my 50’s when my paradigm shifted.
I voted for Jimmy Carter. That was probably the most incorrect vote of my life.
I voted for Bill Clinton. Twice. In fact, when Clinton ran for his first presidential term, I was a “Friend of Bill” and received “thank you from Bill” tickets to see the live show at the Lincoln Memorial the day before his 1993 inauguration. Then, a few weeks into his administration, the “travelgate” scandal broke and I realized the Clinton team (Bill & Hillary) were not the people they appeared to be. Why did I vote for Bill for his second term? I believed he was a better alternative than Dole and that the Republican congress could keep Clinton “mainstream.” And, it might have worked out OK if Clinton could have avoided sexually abusing a Jewish White House intern and then lying about it.
I am also a physician and saw during my training in inner city Baltimore, how unwed black women (children, really) were having multiple babies without any financial means to care for their offspring other than Great Society funds that rewarded this bad behavior. I saw how Johnson’s Great Society came to perpetuate this sad situation by destroying initiative and wrecking the black family. And how liberal’s welfare schemes created fatherless families, and perpetuated this hopeless downward cycle which destroyed at least one generation.
I understood that it was not by supporting policies that makes one feel good that makes the world better, but rather by supporting policies that actually are effective and that may not, at first blush, “feel” quite as good.
I did not understand why liberals blamed America for so many of the world’s problems. I did not understand why liberals were so anti-military.
I also saw the nascent anti-Israel sentiments develop in the left in the 70’s and 80’s. This Jew-hatred from the left continues and grows. (True, there are also Jew-haters on the right like Patrick Buchanan. But he and his ilk are basically shut out of mainstream Republican and conservative dialogue and write only on the fringe.) But, take a look at the mainstream “standard” journal of liberal (progressive) thought – The Nation Magazine. It’s “always” Israel’s fault in its articles. Jew hatred and blaming Israel is now acceptable on the left. But not on the right.
And, that brings me to sentiments that I will express in this blog.
A love for the greatest Country in the world: the USA. Support for our strongest ally: Israel. Keeping America robust by encouraging our free enterprise capitalist system. Support for our military, without which the previous is impossible. And, favoring restraints on Government which grows and metastasizes like a cancer by always demanding more and more of our hard-earned money.
And, my random musings on how left wing and progressive policies are endangering our security, our economic vitality, our health care system and our eternal quest for Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness.
I used to be a liberal. Then, my paradigm shifted.
Like most baby-boomer US born Jews, my parents (and most American Jews) assumed that FDR was president and Eleanor Roosevelt was the first lady – and this was until the ‘80s! Republicans were “bad” and Democrats were “good.” (Never mind that the Democrats opposed the Civil Rights Bill and stood for segregation in the South and that it was a Republican President – Eisenhower – who Federalized the National Guard to escort black students into Little Rock Central High school.)
Attending an Ivy League school for my undergraduate degree in the ‘60s immersed me in the liberal pro-peace, anti-Vietnam, Communism may not be that bad, tax the rich, give to the poor, big government is good philosophy. And, that’s how I was and that’s how I stayed until my 50’s when my paradigm shifted.
I voted for Jimmy Carter. That was probably the most incorrect vote of my life.
I voted for Bill Clinton. Twice. In fact, when Clinton ran for his first presidential term, I was a “Friend of Bill” and received “thank you from Bill” tickets to see the live show at the Lincoln Memorial the day before his 1993 inauguration. Then, a few weeks into his administration, the “travelgate” scandal broke and I realized the Clinton team (Bill & Hillary) were not the people they appeared to be. Why did I vote for Bill for his second term? I believed he was a better alternative than Dole and that the Republican congress could keep Clinton “mainstream.” And, it might have worked out OK if Clinton could have avoided sexually abusing a Jewish White House intern and then lying about it.
I am also a physician and saw during my training in inner city Baltimore, how unwed black women (children, really) were having multiple babies without any financial means to care for their offspring other than Great Society funds that rewarded this bad behavior. I saw how Johnson’s Great Society came to perpetuate this sad situation by destroying initiative and wrecking the black family. And how liberal’s welfare schemes created fatherless families, and perpetuated this hopeless downward cycle which destroyed at least one generation.
I understood that it was not by supporting policies that makes one feel good that makes the world better, but rather by supporting policies that actually are effective and that may not, at first blush, “feel” quite as good.
I did not understand why liberals blamed America for so many of the world’s problems. I did not understand why liberals were so anti-military.
I also saw the nascent anti-Israel sentiments develop in the left in the 70’s and 80’s. This Jew-hatred from the left continues and grows. (True, there are also Jew-haters on the right like Patrick Buchanan. But he and his ilk are basically shut out of mainstream Republican and conservative dialogue and write only on the fringe.) But, take a look at the mainstream “standard” journal of liberal (progressive) thought – The Nation Magazine. It’s “always” Israel’s fault in its articles. Jew hatred and blaming Israel is now acceptable on the left. But not on the right.
And, that brings me to sentiments that I will express in this blog.
A love for the greatest Country in the world: the USA. Support for our strongest ally: Israel. Keeping America robust by encouraging our free enterprise capitalist system. Support for our military, without which the previous is impossible. And, favoring restraints on Government which grows and metastasizes like a cancer by always demanding more and more of our hard-earned money.
And, my random musings on how left wing and progressive policies are endangering our security, our economic vitality, our health care system and our eternal quest for Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness.
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