An excerpt from Commentary’ Magazine’s website about the FL elections of 8-24-10. But the real story is the gigantic gap in turnout. The Democrat race drew about 862,000 voters; the Republicans drew about 1.28 million voters. In other words, about 420,000 more Republicans than Democrats turned out.
What will happen on November 2, 2010?
The interesting fact is how much more motivated Republicans are over Democrats as documented by the high R turn-out in primaries nationwide. What's more, multiple polls have shown significant erosion of independents’ support for Obama.
When Obama was elected, he won by getting over 96% of the black vote, over 78% of the Jewish vote (Jews made up the second-largest demographic block to vote for Obama.) but it was the majority of the independents’ votes that swept him into office. These unaffiliated voters are the votes that each party seeks. This is the group that has the power to change outcomes. And now, an interesting phenomenon of Buyer's Remorse is growing among independents. Obama has turned them off by. Perhaps I'll discuss this in a future musing.
Incumbent D candidates are avoiding public appearances with Obama. Obama is not an asset for an incumbent running for election, or re-election. This is a change from 2008 when Obama's Hope and Change rhetoric was echoed by the Democratic candidates. Although Obama still attends fund-raisers (his recent Hollywood appearances raked in mega-bucks from the Hollywood elite chattering class for the D coffers) not one D candidate in CA campaigned in public with Obama. The fundraisers were held behind closed Brentwood, CA gates.
Biden has been campaigning publically, but it is unclear if his appearances do anything more than excite the already loyal D base. I do not think Biden will inspire independents to contribute time or money to the D incumbents or, most importantly, to show up and vote in November for a D candidate.
That leaves us with the enthusiasm of registered Republicans. If the R's turn-out in November 2010 continues along present trend lines, and if the independents show up to vote (and they do appear to be inclined to switch their vote to the R candidates) then I predict we will see a significant number of D's lose in November. Will that flip the House and/or Senate away from D control? I won't predict yet. But, I will predict that Obama will be a one term president.
What will happen on November 2, 2010?
The interesting fact is how much more motivated Republicans are over Democrats as documented by the high R turn-out in primaries nationwide. What's more, multiple polls have shown significant erosion of independents’ support for Obama.
When Obama was elected, he won by getting over 96% of the black vote, over 78% of the Jewish vote (Jews made up the second-largest demographic block to vote for Obama.) but it was the majority of the independents’ votes that swept him into office. These unaffiliated voters are the votes that each party seeks. This is the group that has the power to change outcomes. And now, an interesting phenomenon of Buyer's Remorse is growing among independents. Obama has turned them off by. Perhaps I'll discuss this in a future musing.
Incumbent D candidates are avoiding public appearances with Obama. Obama is not an asset for an incumbent running for election, or re-election. This is a change from 2008 when Obama's Hope and Change rhetoric was echoed by the Democratic candidates. Although Obama still attends fund-raisers (his recent Hollywood appearances raked in mega-bucks from the Hollywood elite chattering class for the D coffers) not one D candidate in CA campaigned in public with Obama. The fundraisers were held behind closed Brentwood, CA gates.
Biden has been campaigning publically, but it is unclear if his appearances do anything more than excite the already loyal D base. I do not think Biden will inspire independents to contribute time or money to the D incumbents or, most importantly, to show up and vote in November for a D candidate.
That leaves us with the enthusiasm of registered Republicans. If the R's turn-out in November 2010 continues along present trend lines, and if the independents show up to vote (and they do appear to be inclined to switch their vote to the R candidates) then I predict we will see a significant number of D's lose in November. Will that flip the House and/or Senate away from D control? I won't predict yet. But, I will predict that Obama will be a one term president.
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